> You probably read all about the "death of the CD and DVD" yesterday, 
> right...Here's the press release: http://makeashorterlink.com/?I38D217C5

I've just discovered this press release from Forrester Research at the link 
above has been updated -- I don't have the current version (see how quickly 
things are changin??:-)) -- but here's the same story from yesterday, from 
CBS.MarketWatch.com:

Report: DVDs will soon be obsolete 
By Jon Friedman, CBS.MarketWatch.com 
Last Update: 11:40 AM ET Sep 2, 2003 

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- DVDs and compact discs could soon be 
obsolete, according to a report issued Tuesday by Forrester Research. 
"CDs and DVDs will go the way of the L.P.," Forrester predicts.

File sharing is responsible for almost $700 million of the $2 billion reduction in 
CD sales since 1999, Forrester says, noting that movie companies face a similar 
sales threat. 

The so-called "hard" media are in jeopardy, concludes principal analyst Josh 
Bernoff of the Boston-based research organization. "By 2008, revenues from
CDs will be off 19 percent, while DVDs and tapes will drop 8 percent," Bernoff 
said.

By the end of next year, 20 million U.S. consumers will be spending $14 billion 
annually on broadband connections, the report says. Streaming and paid 
downloads will drive people "to connect to entertainment, not own it," the report 
says. 

Gloomy trend 

Forrester points out that the gloomy sales trend for CDs is already under way, 
as CD sales in the U.S. fell 15 percent during the past three years. Discussing 
what it ominously calls "the slow death of the disc," the research group says 
broadband, widespread storage and digital rights protection will make on-demand 
music and movie services more popular.

While consumers always pursue bargains and higher quality, convenience remains 
the key attraction. 

"The idea that you have to get in your car, go to a store and buy (an item) is really 
out of touch," Bernoff added in an interview. "The on-demand and cable access 
services have all the advantages. All of the content is coming to cable."

Jarring findings 

Bernoff's findings could eventually jar the entertainment industry. 

Compact discs arrived in the late 1980s and were promoted by labels as a 
superior way for consumers to own music. The companies claimed that the quality 
was far better -- even though rock and roll star Neil Young, among others, eventually 
claimed bitterly that vinyl offered a clearer and more genuine all-round sound. Even 
though the labels charged more than twice as much for CDs as for vinyl products, 
the public snapped up CDs and vinyl labels were quickly consigned to be little more
than collectors' items.

Meanwhile, sales of DVDs have been billed as the eventual lifeblood of the movie 
business. Analysts have seen DVDs as the logical progression as a revenue source, 
coming after cable television distribution and such retail stores as Blockbuster. 

The report's findings will affect the media and entertainment industry's largest companies, 
including AOL Time Warner (AOL) , Walt Disney (DIS) , Viacom (VIA) and Sony 
(SNE) . 

"Movie companies are reacting aggressively and moving from talk to action," Bernoff 
said. "They're making it as easy as possible for you to download a movie and pay for it."

Over time, Bernoff projected, his findings will be more vivid. "There are 10 million 
people who now have video on demand and that number will be 20 million by the end 
of next year," he said. 

"The big winners are going to be Internet portals and cable companies who can deliver 
[video] on demand," he said. "The disaster is (potentially) for retail companies," such 
as Blockbuster, Virgin megastores and Tower, which would suffer. "While labels will 
survive, I'm very doubtful for the prospects of big music retailers."

The solution is for the retailers to get the most out of the marketing appeal of their 
well-established brand names. "Western Union is all about maximizing its brand name, 
not delivering telegrams, any more," he said.

"How did we get to these crossroads?" Bernoff asked in the report. "Broadband 
connections, cheap and widespread storage, and ubiquitous processing power have 
forever liberated media from physical objects like CDs, tapes and DVDs. But the 
same technology forces that brought entertainment companies to the crisis point 
contain the promise of media's salvation -- the ability to create media services that 
consumers will pay for."