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| From | jchasin@nyc.rr.com |
| Subject | Singing The Blues: Online Music Sales Pass CDs by 2012 |
| Date | Wed, 20 Feb 2008 10:22:09 -0500 |
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Weren't they supposed to turn this thing off?
Forwarding an article from Mediapost, a media business electronic
trade pub...
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Singing The Blues: Online Music Sales Pass CDs by 2012
Erik Sass
CDs will be singing the blues. Digital music sales will pass CDs by
2012, according to a new study from Forrester Research. Forrester says
digital sales are set to grow 23% every year for the next five years,
topping $4.8 billion by 2010. CD sales will probably sink to $3.8
billion by 2012.
A separate study from Nielsen Music, including SoundScan, BDS and
RingScan, says digital sales already accounted for 23% of total sales
in 2007. Individual track sales increased 45% from 2006-2007, with 840
million sold, while digital album sales rose 53% to over 50 million.
Nielsen also says that physical album sales (meaning, CDs) declined
15% from 2006-2007.
While the digital boom sounds like good news, it presents a gloomy
picture for the music industry. The Forrester study, titled "The End
of Music As We Know It," notes that new digital sales revenues won't
come close to replacing the lost CD revenues. From a high of $14.2
billion in 2000, total revenues will shrink to just $8.6 billion in
2012, if Forrester's prediction holds.
The Forrester study echoes a recent report from the International
Federation of the Phonographic Industry, which also warned that
illegal downloads outnumbered legal downloads by 20-to-1.
The company's prediction is based, in part, on consumer behaviors
measured through a survey of 5,000 American and Canadian consumers.
One reason digital sales will grow, for example, is that the average
MP3 player is only filled to about 53% of its storage capacity. The
researchers also anticipate more DRM-free downloads, via services like
Apple iTunes and online social networks.
The spread of DRM-free songs and popularity of on-demand music
streaming sites mean there isn't much hope for ad-supported music
downloads, Forrester added. Subscription services, however, will grow
somewhat, with revenue reaching $459 million by 2012.
Click to read this article on the MediaPostPublications.com website
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