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ivan@stellysee.de
| From | "josh chasin" <jchasin@nyc.rr.com> |
| Subject | Re: Universal Music cuts CD prices |
| Date | Thu, 4 Sep 2003 08:34:54 -0400 |
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If its any consolation, the next time Forrester is right will be the first.
----- Original Message -----
From: "bryan" <munki100@pacbell.net>
To: <audities@smoe.org>
Sent: Thursday, September 04, 2003 12:16 AM
Subject: Re: Universal Music cuts CD prices
> > You probably read all about the "death of the CD and DVD" yesterday,
> > right...Here's the press release: http://makeashorterlink.com/?I38D217C5
>
> I've just discovered this press release from Forrester Research at the
link
> above has been updated -- I don't have the current version (see how
quickly
> things are changin??:-)) -- but here's the same story from yesterday, from
> CBS.MarketWatch.com:
>
> Report: DVDs will soon be obsolete
> By Jon Friedman, CBS.MarketWatch.com
> Last Update: 11:40 AM ET Sep 2, 2003
>
> NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- DVDs and compact discs could soon be
> obsolete, according to a report issued Tuesday by Forrester Research.
> "CDs and DVDs will go the way of the L.P.," Forrester predicts.
>
> File sharing is responsible for almost $700 million of the $2 billion
reduction in
> CD sales since 1999, Forrester says, noting that movie companies face a
similar
> sales threat.
>
> The so-called "hard" media are in jeopardy, concludes principal analyst
Josh
> Bernoff of the Boston-based research organization. "By 2008, revenues from
> CDs will be off 19 percent, while DVDs and tapes will drop 8 percent,"
Bernoff
> said.
>
> By the end of next year, 20 million U.S. consumers will be spending $14
billion
> annually on broadband connections, the report says. Streaming and paid
> downloads will drive people "to connect to entertainment, not own it," the
report
> says.
>
> Gloomy trend
>
> Forrester points out that the gloomy sales trend for CDs is already under
way,
> as CD sales in the U.S. fell 15 percent during the past three years.
Discussing
> what it ominously calls "the slow death of the disc," the research group
says
> broadband, widespread storage and digital rights protection will make
on-demand
> music and movie services more popular.
>
> While consumers always pursue bargains and higher quality, convenience
remains
> the key attraction.
>
> "The idea that you have to get in your car, go to a store and buy (an
item) is really
> out of touch," Bernoff added in an interview. "The on-demand and cable
access
> services have all the advantages. All of the content is coming to cable."
>
> Jarring findings
>
> Bernoff's findings could eventually jar the entertainment industry.
>
> Compact discs arrived in the late 1980s and were promoted by labels as a
> superior way for consumers to own music. The companies claimed that the
quality
> was far better -- even though rock and roll star Neil Young, among others,
eventually
> claimed bitterly that vinyl offered a clearer and more genuine all-round
sound. Even
> though the labels charged more than twice as much for CDs as for vinyl
products,
> the public snapped up CDs and vinyl labels were quickly consigned to be
little more
> than collectors' items.
>
> Meanwhile, sales of DVDs have been billed as the eventual lifeblood of the
movie
> business. Analysts have seen DVDs as the logical progression as a revenue
source,
> coming after cable television distribution and such retail stores as
Blockbuster.
>
> The report's findings will affect the media and entertainment industry's
largest companies,
> including AOL Time Warner (AOL) , Walt Disney (DIS) , Viacom (VIA) and
Sony
> (SNE) .
>
> "Movie companies are reacting aggressively and moving from talk to
action," Bernoff
> said. "They're making it as easy as possible for you to download a movie
and pay for it."
>
> Over time, Bernoff projected, his findings will be more vivid. "There are
10 million
> people who now have video on demand and that number will be 20 million by
the end
> of next year," he said.
>
> "The big winners are going to be Internet portals and cable companies who
can deliver
> [video] on demand," he said. "The disaster is (potentially) for retail
companies," such
> as Blockbuster, Virgin megastores and Tower, which would suffer. "While
labels will
> survive, I'm very doubtful for the prospects of big music retailers."
>
> The solution is for the retailers to get the most out of the marketing
appeal of their
> well-established brand names. "Western Union is all about maximizing its
brand name,
> not delivering telegrams, any more," he said.
>
> "How did we get to these crossroads?" Bernoff asked in the report.
"Broadband
> connections, cheap and widespread storage, and ubiquitous processing power
have
> forever liberated media from physical objects like CDs, tapes and DVDs.
But the
> same technology forces that brought entertainment companies to the crisis
point
> contain the promise of media's salvation -- the ability to create media
services that
> consumers will pay for."
>
>
>
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